Ultima Investment Services

UIS Risk Rating This Month = 2.95

This month’s predicted S&P500 trading conditions:
Very Good Bull (UP or Long) trading conditions.
Very low risk of Bear period.
Any SP500 falls created by adverse news events likely to be
short lived with full rebound expected within 2 months.

Interpretation of Risk Ratings
Above -1.45
Very Good Bull (UP or Long) trading conditions.
Very low risk of Bear period.
Any SP500 falls created by adverse news events likely to be
short lived with full rebound expected within 2 months.

-1.46 to -4.99
Poor Bull (UP or Long) trading conditions.
Significant risk of Bear period but significant risk of falls up to -4.0%.
Any SP500 falls created by adverse news events likely to be
short lived with rebound expected within 3 months.
Below -10.00
Very high probability of Big Bear crash and extended Bear period.
Likely SP500 fall from high water mark exceeding 20%.
Very high volatility.
Rebounds very weak.
Bull trading not viable.

Notes on EPS estimates
This report assesses the risk of a Bear Crash or major fall extending into a Bear period for the S&P500 Index and companies.
S&P500 companies issue estimates of Earnings Per Share for typically the next four
quarters ahead. The companies update their estimates when the business environment is reviewed or each Quarter. A significant number of companies issue revised estimates weekly.
EPS estimates are consolidated on a capital weight basis in accordance with the
S&P500 index. The change in EPS estimates from one Quarter to another is the primary data used in the assessment of UIS Risk Ratings.

Disclaimer
The risk ratings and comments made in this report should not be regarded as
investment or trading advice.

The Risk Ratings and comments made in this report do not indicate any trading method is profitable or that losses are not incurred.

Seek professional advice before making any financial decisions based on the
Risk Ratings or comments made in this report.

Ultima Investment Services does not accept any liability for any losses or
expenses incurred in applying the Risk Ratings or comments contained in this report.

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