There is a big difference between stock market crashes
Stock market crashes are often sudden and dramatic with no warning. They can last for a short period of less than 1 month or can extend for years. The S&P500 has demonstrated in over 100 years that US stock market crashes always recover eventually.
The key question for traders and fund managers is: how severe is the fall, and how long until recovery? Understanding the type of crash you are facing is the first step to protecting your capital and cutting drawdowns.
01The Two Types of Stock Market Crashes
Understand the critical difference between News Event crashes and Bear crashes. News Event crashes are sudden, short-lived and recover quickly, while Bear crashes stem from systemic earnings degradation and take far longer to recover.
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02How to Predict Stock Market Crashes
Many technical indicators are coincident, not predictive. Learn what 'predictable' really means for trading, and how the UIS Risk Rating provides at least one month's advance warning of every Bear and Big Bear crash since 1997.
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03Compare News Event Crashes to Bear Market Crashes
Using all SPY falls of more than -2% from 2010 to 2026, see how falls when the Risk Rating is below -1.45 take more than double the time to recover losses compared to News Event crashes.
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04The 2026 Iran War Crash
A real-time case study: when conflict erupted in the Persian Gulf in February 2026, the market panicked. UIS classified it as a News Event crash three weeks before the war started — and the S&P500 fully recovered by mid-April.
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Discover the Key Indicator That Drives Stock Market Performance
Whether you're new to investing or an experienced trader, understanding company earnings can help you make more informed investment decisions and avoid costly mistakes.
Sample UIS Risk Rating Report