Ultima Investment Services
Cut Trading Losses

Historical UIS Risk Ratings

A proven forecasting methodology with an empirical track record dating back to 1997.

Track Record Since 1997

Since 1997, the UIS Risk Rating System has correctly identified 100% of major S&P500 Bear and Big Bear Crashes in advance of their occurrence. Below is the full monthly history of UIS Risk Ratings from 1997–2026, 349 monthly ratings in total.

349

Monthly Ratings

1997–2026

Date Range

100%

Bear Crashes Predicted

30+

Years of Data

Rating Legend

Bullish

≥ 0

Neutral

-1.45 to 0

Bear Risk

-5 to -1.45

Bear Crash

-10 to -5

Big Bear Crash

< -10

Monthly Ratings by Year

1997

4 ratings
Sep+1.00
Oct+0.10
Nov-2.50
Dec+2.15

1998

12 ratings
Jan-1.10
Feb-0.30
Mar-3.70
Apr-6.00
May-8.80
Jun-5.05
Jul-1.60
Aug-1.30
Sep-6.80
Oct-6.55
Nov-8.10
Dec-2.10

1999

12 ratings
Jan+2.70
Feb+2.45
Mar+3.20
Apr+2.20
May+1.30
Jun+1.90
Jul+2.70
Aug+1.45
Sep-0.20
Oct+1.45
Nov+2.70
Dec+2.70

2000

12 ratings
Jan+2.70
Feb+3.45
Mar+1.95
Apr+2.40
May-1.50
Jun-1.40
Jul-1.75
Aug-3.90
Sep-7.40
Oct-9.40
Nov-10.40
Dec-11.65

2001

12 ratings
Jan-11.40
Feb-11.40
Mar-21.40
Apr-21.00
May-18.10
Jun-17.30
Jul-17.55
Aug-16.20
Sep-15.85
Oct-11.60
Nov-7.80
Dec-7.30

2002

12 ratings
Jan-7.30
Feb-7.30
Mar-7.30
Apr-7.30
May-8.20
Jun-8.10
Jul-7.55
Aug-6.55
Sep-8.20
Oct-8.80
Nov-7.55
Dec-6.80

2003

12 ratings
Jan-6.80
Feb-6.80
Mar+2.20
Apr+2.20
May+3.20
Jun+3.20
Jul+2.20
Aug+2.20
Sep+2.70
Oct+2.70
Nov+2.70
Dec+3.20

2004

12 ratings
Jan+2.20
Feb+2.20
Mar+2.70
Apr+2.70
May+1.80
Jun+1.90
Jul+2.45
Aug+3.20
Sep+1.20
Oct+2.45
Nov+0.80
Dec+2.70

2005

12 ratings
Jan+2.45
Feb+3.45
Mar+1.95
Apr+3.20
May+0.50
Jun+1.90
Jul+3.05
Aug+0.20
Sep-0.20
Oct-0.55
Nov+0.70
Dec+2.70

2006

12 ratings
Jan+2.70
Feb+2.70
Mar+3.20
Apr+3.20
May+2.20
Jun+2.70
Jul+1.00
Aug-1.00
Sep+0.25
Oct-0.10
Nov-1.10
Dec-2.30

2007

12 ratings
Jan-4.30
Feb-2.30
Mar-3.85
Apr0.00
May-1.90
Jun-1.05
Jul-4.90
Aug-4.65
Sep-21.40
Oct-21.00
Nov-18.10
Dec-17.30

2008

12 ratings
Jan-17.55
Feb-16.55
Mar-17.30
Apr-15.80
May-11.65
Jun-10.25
Jul-14.00
Aug-15.00
Sep-20.25
Oct-21.00
Nov-18.00
Dec-18.40

2009

12 ratings
Jan-14.10
Feb-12.20
Mar-15.10
Apr-15.10
May-14.30
Jun-5.10
Jul+2.70
Aug+2.70
Sep+2.70
Oct+2.70
Nov+2.70
Dec+2.70

2010

12 ratings
Jan+2.70
Feb+2.70
Mar+2.70
Apr+2.70
May+2.70
Jun+2.70
Jul+2.70
Aug+2.70
Sep+3.20
Oct+2.95
Nov+2.95
Dec+2.70

2011

12 ratings
Jan+2.95
Feb+3.20
Mar+3.20
Apr+2.20
May+2.20
Jun+0.50
Jul-1.00
Aug-1.65
Sep-2.10
Oct-2.50
Nov-2.10
Dec-6.80

2012

12 ratings
Jan-6.80
Feb-4.80
Mar-2.10
Apr-2.90
May0.00
Jun-1.15
Jul-4.00
Aug-5.00
Sep-5.60
Oct-6.80
Nov-6.80
Dec-3.70

2013

12 ratings
Jan-2.05
Feb-6.60
Mar+2.70
Apr+2.70
May+2.45
Jun+2.95
Jul+2.95
Aug+2.95
Sep+3.20
Oct+2.40
Nov-1.50
Dec+0.25

2014

12 ratings
Jan+2.95
Feb-0.30
Mar-2.30
Apr-2.05
May-0.80
Jun+0.50
Jul-1.40
Aug+0.25
Sep-4.40
Oct-5.40
Nov-5.00
Dec-9.50

2015

12 ratings
Jan-9.50
Feb-8.60
Mar-7.00
Apr-6.00
May-3.40
Jun-6.80
Jul-4.40
Aug-4.40
Sep-4.50
Oct-6.00
Nov-4.60
Dec-7.80

2016

12 ratings
Jan-6.80
Feb-4.55
Mar-3.60
Apr-2.60
May+2.20
Jun+2.70
Jul+2.70
Aug+1.00
Sep+1.00
Oct+1.65
Nov+1.45
Dec-0.80

2017

12 ratings
Jan-2.20
Feb-0.55
Mar-1.60
Apr+2.20
May+2.20
Jun+2.70
Jul+2.70
Aug+3.70
Sep+3.20
Oct+2.20
Nov+2.20
Dec+2.70

2018

12 ratings
Jan+2.70
Feb+2.70
Mar+2.70
Apr+2.70
May+2.70
Jun-0.20
Jul-1.40
Aug-1.40
Sep-1.65
Oct-3.60
Nov-0.55
Dec-17.55

2019

12 ratings
Jan-17.20
Feb-14.55
Mar-4.10
Apr-7.30
May-9.00
Jun+1.00
Jul-7.35
Aug-11.50
Sep-14.90
Oct-14.50
Nov-14.50
Dec-15.65

2020

12 ratings
Jan-14.10
Feb-12.20
Mar-19.00
Apr-16.00
May-16.00
Jun-5.90
Jul+2.70
Aug+2.70
Sep+2.70
Oct+2.70
Nov+3.05
Dec+1.95

2021

12 ratings
Jan+2.20
Feb+2.20
Mar+2.70
Apr+2.70
May+1.80
Jun+2.70
Jul+2.70
Aug+3.45
Sep-0.55
Oct-0.50
Nov-2.40
Dec-1.65

2022

12 ratings
Jan-3.00
Feb-4.65
Mar-19.50
Apr-18.85
May-17.80
Jun-7.80
Jul-16.55
Aug-18.10
Sep-2.90
Oct+2.45
Nov+3.45
Dec+2.30

2023

12 ratings
Jan+1.95
Feb+3.20
Mar+2.20
Apr+0.50
May-1.50
Jun+0.85
Jul-1.10
Aug-1.10
Sep-2.30
Oct-3.70
Nov-2.05
Dec-1.85

2024

12 ratings
Jan+2.95
Feb+2.70
Mar+1.95
Apr+3.20
May+2.20
Jun+2.70
Jul+2.70
Aug+3.45
Sep-0.50
Oct+1.90
Nov0.00
Dec+1.65

2025

12 ratings
Jan-0.80
Feb-1.30
Mar-4.80
Apr-4.55
May-9.10
Jun-2.10
Jul+2.70
Aug+2.70
Sep+2.70
Oct+2.70
Nov+2.70
Dec+2.20

2026

9 ratings
Jan+2.95
Feb+2.95
Mar+1.95
Apr+2.20
May+2.20
Jun+2.70
Jul+2.70
Aug+2.70
Sep+2.70

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