On 28 Feb 2026, Israel and the USA militarily attacked Iran. The resulting conflict seriously affected air and maritime transport in the Persian Gulf region. Production, distribution and transportation of crude oil and gas were dramatically reduced.
Crude oil and other energy futures reacted immediately with a huge price rise. This caused stock market traders and investors to panic, and the S&P500 and other indices dropped quickly.
The huge jump in the crude oil price especially was expected to significantly affect consumers and businesses. Many (uninformed) commentators and even analysts were asking whether we were heading into a recession or bear period.
What It Takes for a Bear Crash
For a Bear crash in the S&P500 to occur, the profitability of most of the 500 biggest companies in the US must drop dramatically. Not just one or two industries or sectors; it must be widespread.
The increase in energy prices from the Iran War would certainly affect consumers and some businesses, but other businesses do very well when energy prices rise. When crude is priced at $70 a barrel, many crude businesses are only marginally profitable. When prices rise to perhaps $100 a barrel, their profitability escalates. This affects energy explorers, equipment and tech suppliers, and producers.
As crude and other energy futures settled into a trading range, the overall impact of the energy price rises was in effect just another CPI cost increase.
A recession or Bear crash did not eventuate. The S&P500 fully recovered by mid-April 2026.
We Predicted This S&P500 Fall Was Only a News Event Crash
At UIS, we specialise in analysing quarterly and weekly earnings data to determine S&P500 market trends. Above all, we want to predict Bear crashes.
We classify market falls as one of two types:
News Event Crash
News Event crashes are typically short-lived and fully recover in a short period. Since 1997, there have been 35 News Event crashes. The average time for a News Event crash to fully recover losses was 1.1 months. The worst was 5.3 months.
Earnings or Bear Event Crash
Earnings or Bear Event crashes are typically severe and take an extended period to recover. Since 2010, there have been 22 Bear and Big Bear crashes. The average time for a Bear crash to fully recover was 2.9 months. The worst was 8.3 months.
UIS issues weekly emails and posts that alert traders and fund managers to impending market conditions, particularly S&P500 crashes.
In any week where the S&P500 falls 2% or more, we analyse the situation and the factual evidence (not uninformed commentary and sentiment). We then issue a report classifying the fall as either a News Event crash or an Earnings Bear Event crash.
UIS Weekly Reports on the Iran War Event
The following is a summary of the posts and reports available on the UIS website.
Our first post on the Iran War crash was on 6 Feb 2026. It stated that the S&P500 fall was a News Event fall, not an Earnings Bear crash. This was three weeks before the war started on 28 Feb 2026.
| Date | SPY Price | Fall from High | UIS Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 26 | 695.49 (high) | 0.0% | None |
| 6 Feb 26 | 677.62 | -2.6% | News Event |
| 13 Feb 26 | 681.27 | -2.0% | News Event |
| 20 Feb 26 | 689.43 | -2.0% | News Event |
| 27 Feb 26 | 685.99 | -2.1% | News Event |
| 28 Feb 26 | WAR STARTED | ||
| 6 Mar 26 | 672.38 | -3.4% | News Event |
| 12 Mar 26 | 666.06 | -4.4% | News Event |
| 19 Mar 26 | 659.80 | -5.4% | News Event |
| 27 Mar 26 | 634.09 | -9.6% | News Event |
| 2 Apr 26 | 658.93 | -5.5% | News Event |
| 10 Apr 26 | 686.10 | -2.8% | News Event |
| 15 Apr 26 | 699.95 | ALL LOSSES FULLY RECOVERED |
Summary
As the table shows, three weeks before the war started on 28 Feb 2026, we were already assessing the S&P500 fall as a News Event crash.
Our subscribers were prepared and avoided the panic of uninformed traders.
Because a News Event crash is short-lived, the market fully recovers in a short period of time. There was no need to implement Bear trading strategies or any other risk management procedures.
+0.9%
From 30 Jan to 16 Apr 2026
-5% or more
Exited around 28 Feb 2026 from the 30 Jan high
-5.2%
Exited late, re-entered 16 Apr after full recovery
Many uninformed traders exited the SPY around 28 Feb 2026 and suffered a loss of -5% or more from the 30 Jan 2026 high. From 30 Jan 2026 to 16 Apr 2026, a Buy and Hold trader would have gained +0.9%. By comparison, a typical trader exiting when the price fell below the 200-day moving average would have exited late (as is usual with a moving average) and experienced a loss of -5.2%. Because of the moving average lag, that trader would also only have re-entered on 16 April, AFTER the price had fully recovered.
