To illustrate the difference between News Event crashes and Bear crashes, let's look at all SPY falls of more than -2.0% from 2010 to 2026. A fall of -2% is not necessarily a crash, but it is useful to compare for statistical analysis.
Any fall of -2% that occurs in a non-bear period, when the UIS Risk Rating is above -1.45, is classified as a News Event Crash.
Any fall of -2% that occurs in a bear period, when the UIS Risk Rating is below -1.45, is classified as a Bear Crash.
What is the significant feature of concern to traders?
Apart from the size of the fall, the main issue for traders is how long it takes, in days, for the SPY to fully recover from losses.
The tables below compare the days to recover losses for News Event crashes compared to Bear crashes.
News Event Crashes
Falls of more than -2% in the SPY when the Risk Rating was above -1.45, 2010 to 2026
| Fall Date | Risk Rating | Days to Recover |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2010 | 2.70 | 34 |
| 27 Apr 2010 | 2.70 | 98 |
| 12 Nov 2010 | 3.20 | 14 |
| 22 Feb 2011 | 2.20 | 44 |
| 6 Mar 2012 | -1.15 | 6 |
| 25 Feb 2013 | 2.45 | 6 |
| 7 Apr 2013 | -1.40 | 24 |
| 15 Apr 2013 | 2.95 | 11 |
| 31 May 2013 | 2.95 | 28 |
| 24 Sep 2013 | 0.25 | 17 |
| 4 May 2016 | 1.00 | 18 |
| 14 Jun 2016 | 1.00 | 18 |
| 9 Sep 2016 | -0.80 | 51 |
| 21 Mar 2017 | 2.70 | 35 |
| 18 Aug 2017 | 2.20 | 16 |
| 2 Feb 2018 | 2.70 | 85 |
| 8 Mar 2019 | 1.00 | 4 |
| 25 Mar 2019 | 1.00 | 6 |
| 11 Jun 2020 | 2.70 | 26 |
| 3 Sep 2020 | 1.95 | 49 |
| 20 Nov 2020 | 2.20 | 2 |
| 27 Jan 2021 | 2.70 | 6 |
| 25 Feb 2021 | 1.80 | 10 |
| 24 Mar 2021 | 2.70 | 7 |
| 12 May 2021 | 3.45 | 17 |
| 18 Jun 2021 | -0.55 | 5 |
| 19 Jul 2021 | -0.50 | 5 |
| 22 Aug 2022 | 3.45 | 111 |
| 4 Jan 2024 | 3.20 | 6 |
| 12 Apr 2024 | 2.70 | 19 |
| 19 Jul 2024 | 1.90 | 4 |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -0.80 | 4 |
| 15 Nov 2024 | -1.30 | 7 |
| 22 May 2025 | -1.00 | 9 |
| 2 Aug 2025 | 0.65 | 4 |
Bear and Mini Bear Crashes
Falls of more than -2% in the SPY when the Risk Rating was below -1.45, 2010 to 2026
| Fall Date | Risk Rating | Days to Recover |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2011 | -4.00 | 95 |
| 2 May 2011 | -1.65 | 175 |
| 1 Aug 2013 | -1.50 | 51 |
| 2 Jun 2014 | -4.40 | 57 |
| 2 Sep 2014 | -9.50 | 27 |
| 2 Jan 2015 | -6.00 | 28 |
| 2 Mar 2015 | -6.80 | 27 |
| 1 Jul 2015 | -6.00 | 87 |
| 4 Jan 2016 | -2.60 | 74 |
| 3 Oct 2016 | -2.20 | 29 |
| 5 Oct 2018 | -17.20 | 95 |
| 7 May 2019 | -11.50 | 31 |
| 1 Aug 2019 | -14.50 | 60 |
| 24 Feb 2020 | -16.00 | 67 |
| 20 Sep 2021 | -3.00 | 23 |
| 26 Nov 2021 | -19.50 | 10 |
| 6 Jan 2022 | -18.85 | 148 |
| 16 Feb 2023 | -1.50 | 63 |
| 4 Aug 2023 | -2.05 | 75 |
| 18 Dec 2024 | -4.55 | 22 |
| 22 Feb 2025 | -2.10 | 61 |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -2.30 | 23 |
Comparing -2% Falls in SPY Since 2010 by Risk Rating
| Risk Rating | Average Days to Recover | Maximum Days to Recover |
|---|---|---|
| Above -1.45 (non-bear rating) | 23.0 days | 111 days |
| Below -1.45 (bear rating) | 60.4 days | 175 days |
Conclusion
Falls of more than -2% that occur when the UIS Risk Rating is below -1.45 take more than DOUBLE the time to recover losses (around 2.6 times longer on average).
A UIS Risk Rating below -1.45 is therefore a strong indicator of extended bear periods.
UIS Risk Ratings are issued PRIOR to a crash.
