How Can You Beat Buy & Hold?
Long-term Buy & Hold is hard to beat, but applying the UIS Risk Rating can deliver a higher Return On Investment.
The simplest approach is to Buy & Hold the S&P500 most of the time, and only exit in months when the UIS Risk Rating is below -1.45.
Beat Buy & Hold with the UIS Risk RatingCan You Use Technical Indicators with the UIS Risk Rating?
Yes. The UIS Risk Rating gives you the big-picture (macro) trend, and you can use any technical analysis indicator to generate your trading signals.
Trend following, momentum, pullback and reversal, and other cyclic methods all work alongside the UIS Risk Rating. The big advantage is that you'll know at least one month ahead when a major change in the S&P500 trend is coming.
Lower Drawdowns, Smarter Leverage
Because applying the UIS Risk Rating dramatically reduces drawdowns, you can consider using more leverage, for example by trading:
- 2x ETFs (SSO)
- 3x ETFs (SPXL)
- 5x futures (ES e-mini or MES)
Do Company Earnings Revisions Affect the UIS Risk Rating?
No, not significantly. Earnings revisions and the release of actual earnings don't have a significant effect, because the UIS Risk Rating assesses the overall earnings trend, and individual figures can change without altering that trend.
How Reliable Is the UIS Risk Rating?
The UIS Risk Rating is based on analysis of the 500 companies in the S&P500 Index, each of which releases earnings estimates up to 12 months ahead.
Companies' earnings estimates are slightly lower than the actual earnings they report after each quarter. Companies underestimate slightly to be conservative, because they don't want to report results worse than their estimates and damage management credibility.
The UIS Risk Rating has consistently flagged every Bear crash in the last 30 years, with at least one month's warning.
Will It Keep Working as Markets Change?
Markets change, but they are somewhat cyclic, with Bull and Bear markets driven by economic and other conditions. Our earnings research goes back over 100 years, and the UIS Risk Rating has been rigorously tested over the last 30. In that time, the US share market has been through several Bull trends, Big Bear crashes and smaller Bear crashes, as well as wars and every kind of economic condition, and the UIS Risk Rating has delivered consistent results throughout.
What Does a Subscription Give You?
- At least one month's warning of an S&P500 crash
- A forecasting record that has called every Bear and Big Bear crash since 1997 in advance
Protect Your Trading Capital
Get early warning signals before traditional technical indicators typically react.
Sample UIS Risk Rating Report