Question 1

What is the UIS Risk Rating System?

Accepted Answer

The UIS Risk Rating System is a proprietary forecasting model developed in 1997 that evaluates S&P 500 corporate earnings, P/E ratios, and fundamental intrinsic value to detect bear market crashes before they happen.

Question 2

How does the Free Essential Tier work?

Accepted Answer

The Essential plan is 100% free forever. It includes immediate download of our eBook 'Why Earnings Are the Critical Indicator of Stock Market Trends', weekly market update emails, current-month UIS Risk Ratings, and member portal login.

Question 3

What is the difference between Professional and Fund Manager plans?

Accepted Answer

Professional ($19.90/mo) provides 3-month forward S&P 500 Risk Rating forecasts, early warning signals, and drawdown reports for active traders. Fund Manager ($29.90/mo) provides institutional-grade 12-month forward forecasts, Special Crash Reports, Bear Warning threshold alerts, and detailed bear trading strategy guides.

Question 4

Are there long-term contracts?

Accepted Answer

No contracts whatsoever. You can change tier or cancel your subscription at any time directly through your Subscriber Portal.

Question 5

How far back does the UIS track record extend?

Accepted Answer

The UIS methodology has a documented historical track record dating back to 1997, correctly identifying 100% of major S&P 500 bear crashes in advance.

Question 6

Is the UIS Risk Rating accurate?

Accepted Answer

Based on UIS's research, the UIS Risk Rating has identified all Bear and Big Bear crashes in the S&P500 since 1997 in advance, with at least one month's warning. The full monthly ratings history from September 1997 is published on the website so you can compare it with market history yourself. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Question 7

How much does it cost?

Accepted Answer

UIS offers three plans: Essential (free), Professional at $19.90 USD per month and Fund Manager at $29.90 USD per month. All paid subscriptions are billed in US dollars. Paid plans are monthly with no contracts.

Question 8

What's the difference between the free and paid plans?

Accepted Answer

Essential (free) includes the free ebook, a weekly market email, the current month's UIS Risk Rating, educational articles and a member login. Professional adds a 3-month forward Bear Market outlook and early warning alerts. Fund Manager adds 12-month forecasts, Special Crash Reports, Bear Warning Reports and detailed Bear trading strategies.

Question 9

Can the UIS Risk Rating predict the next stock market crash?

Accepted Answer

Yes, for Bear and Big Bear crashes, which are caused by a widespread fall in company earnings. No, for News Event crashes, which are caused by unexpected political, military or economic events. These are usually short-lived, with the S&P500 recovering in about 1.1 months on average.

Question 10

How far in advance will I get a warning?

Accepted Answer

UIS Risk Ratings are issued at least one month before a predicted Bear or Big Bear crash. Professional subscribers see ratings for the next 3 months and Fund Manager subscribers for the next 12 months. This lets you plan your exit calmly, rather than being caught by a stop loss once the fall has started.

Question 11

What do the numbers mean?

Accepted Answer

A UIS Risk Rating below -1.45 signals a high risk of a Bear period. Below -5 means a Bear crash is imminent, and below -10 means a Big Bear crash is imminent. Above -1.45 is a non-Bear rating, where any fall is typically a short-lived News Event crash.

Question 12

How often is it updated?

Accepted Answer

UIS issues weekly emails and posts, and in any week the S&P500 falls 2% or more, it issues a report classifying the fall.

Question 13

Why earnings instead of charts and technical indicators?

Accepted Answer

Earnings estimates look forward, while most technical indicators lag. Technical indicators usually signal on the day of a crash or later, after the first big fall has happened. Earnings estimates show falling profits before the market reacts.

Question 14

What's the difference between a News Event crash and a Bear crash?

Accepted Answer

A News Event crash is caused by an unexpected event and is usually short-lived, recovering in about 1.1 months on average. A Bear crash is caused by a widespread fall in company earnings and takes more than twice as long to recover, around 2.9 months on average, with the worst taking about 8.3 months.

Question 15

What can I trade with it?

Accepted Answer

Anything that tracks the S&P500, including the SPY ETF, ES and MES e-mini futures, SPX options, the 500 companies in the index, and leveraged ETFs such as SSO (2x) and SPXL (3x). It can also be applied to other US indices such as the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and Russell.

Question 16

Does it work with my current strategy?

Accepted Answer

Yes. Many traders use the UIS Risk Rating for the big-picture trend and keep their existing technical indicators for trade entries and exits.

Question 17

Should I sell everything when it turns negative?

Accepted Answer

The simplest approach UIS tested is to Buy & Hold the S&P500 and exit only in months when the rating is below -1.45, re-entering when it rises above -1.45. In UIS's test since 1997, this lifted average annual growth to about 13.4%, compared with about 9.5% for Buy & Hold, and avoided the 2001 and 2008 Big Bear crashes. This is not personal advice.

Question 18

How did it go in the 2026 Iran War fall?

Accepted Answer

UIS classified the fall as a News Event crash from its first post on 6 February 2026, before the war began on 28 February. Earnings estimates stayed bullish, and the S&P500 recovered all its losses by mid-April 2026, so subscribers had no need to sell.

Question 19

Is there a free trial or refund?

Accepted Answer

The Essential plan is free, so you can try the UIS Risk Rating before upgrading.

Question 20

How do I receive the ratings?

Accepted Answer

By email and through the subscriber login area. Rating updates, market commentary and early warning alerts (paid plans) go to your inbox, and you can log in anytime for your ratings history and reports.

Question 21

What's in the free ebook?

Accepted Answer

"Why Earnings Are the Critical Indicator of Stock Market Trends" explains how to work out what a share is really worth, why the S&P500 PE ratio reverts to its average, and how the UIS Risk Rating helps reduce drawdowns. It's sent to your inbox along with the weekly Crash Insights newsletter.

Question 22

How do I log in or reset my password?

Accepted Answer

For technical support, email shane.watson@ultimainvestmentservices.com.

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